Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.335885 2.481203 2.635117 2.810998 3.007325 3.220794 3.471910
2025-06-08 2.125321 2.324345 2.545945 2.813524 3.131415 3.501707 3.972917
2025-06-15 2.005240 2.237783 2.505992 2.843186 3.263281 3.780301 4.483372
2025-06-22 1.878728 2.126377 2.419217 2.798320 3.287737 3.916357 4.818524
2025-06-29 1.773943 2.030318 2.339575 2.749611 3.294931 4.021559 5.115816
2025-07-06 1.677939 1.937405 2.255380 2.685184 3.270952 4.076043 5.340454
2025-07-13 1.637523 1.910108 2.250386 2.720978 3.381598 4.325146 5.889132
2025-07-20 1.606825 1.892371 2.255128 2.768007 3.509300 4.610131 6.541690
2025-07-27 1.579428 1.876668 2.260490 2.814599 3.638360 4.909888 7.276344
2025-08-03 1.530888 1.830500 2.221930 2.795648 3.666483 5.050574 7.748547
2025-08-10 1.485998 1.786952 2.184315 2.774862 3.688720 5.182017 8.227826
2025-08-17 1.443422 1.744585 2.146014 2.750145 3.701743 5.297557 8.698086
2025-08-24 1.402217 1.703111 2.107890 2.724599 3.713229 5.415123 9.210979
2025-08-31 1.372726 1.676455 2.089292 2.727111 3.770437 5.622474 9.988704
2025-09-07 1.353204 1.662573 2.087889 2.755273 3.872169 5.926498 11.105325
2025-09-14 1.313963 1.619778 2.042896 2.712681 3.848332 5.980908 11.579914
2025-09-21 1.275992 1.577558 1.997123 2.666414 3.814419 6.010656 11.996984
2025-09-28 1.235817 1.531090 1.943548 2.605175 3.749634 5.969303 12.193004
2025-10-05 1.224513 1.525083 1.949196 2.639204 3.858823 6.310410 13.731424
2025-10-12 1.216645 1.523563 1.961204 2.683891 3.991116 6.723993 15.767439
2025-10-19 1.208933 1.521894 1.972725 2.728137 4.126389 7.169595 18.272449
2025-10-26 1.185867 1.497199 1.948224 2.710144 4.138930 7.321798 19.648464
2025-11-02 1.163458 1.472857 1.923434 2.690403 4.146385 7.462771 21.094130